Quantum computing is edging closer to its first major commercial breakthrough as IDTechEx explores which industries will benefit most from early quantum adoption.
Quantum computing has attracted the attention of both public and private stakeholders across a range of regions and industries, with the global commercial opportunity for quantum computing hardware set to surpass US$21 billion within the next two decades. With multiple hardware providers demonstrating products capable of high-fidelity operations with hundreds of qubits, the focus is now shifting to which industries will be the first to benefit from commercially ready quantum computers?
One of the most hotly debated topics in the quantum computing industry is what the first breakthrough ‘killer application’ will be, sometimes also referred to as the ‘ChatGPT moment’ for quantum, drawing parallels to the transition of LLMs from deep-tech projects to commercial success.
IDTechEx’s market research report Quantum Computing Market 2026-2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts explores in detail the different technology approaches, market leaders, infrastructure challenges and more.
The content of the report is based on research from attending multiple global conferences and primary interviews with players across the value chain including hardware developers, materials providers and end-users.
Quantum computers for quantum chemistry
Based on input from the industry, one of the most commonly cited near-term use cases for quantum computing is in simulations of quantum chemistry and materials science, which could unlock a variety of new chemicals, materials and pharmaceuticals. Market leaders such as Google Quantum AI and Quantinuum have already demonstrated the proof of concept for these simulations on real quantum hardware.
One of the first problems to be simulated is the Ising model, which describes the behaviour of magnetic materials but becomes exponentially difficult to compute on classical computers. Quantum computers could therefore accelerate the discovery and characterisation of new magnetic materials. Beyond magnetic materials, quantum computing could accelerate the discovery of new battery chemistries, industrial chemicals or more effective drugs. For this reason, investment and collaboration with the quantum sector from the chemical, pharmaceutical and automotive industries has been steadily gaining momentum over the last five to 10 years.
Optimisation for automotive, finance and more
Another popular response to the question of what applications quantum computing could unlock is the more efficient optimisation of problems and workflows across many industries. These include the better distribution of resources in factories and energy grids, improving supply or delivery workflows for manufacturing and logistics, or portfolio optimisation in financial trading.
D-Wave has been by far the strongest proponent of quantum-enhanced optimisation, publishing several early-stage use cases running on its quantum annealers, which differ fundamentally from the universal gate-based approach of most other quantum computing companies. D-Wave’s commercial partners for these demonstrations range from telecoms to the food industry to the research division of General Electric.
While the opportunities in optimisation for quantum computers seem vast and highly lucrative at first, it is worth noting that the theory for exactly which problems could actually benefit from quantum speed-up is less robust, and these problems also face more competition from improving non-quantum methods.
The lurking quantum threat to cybersecurity
The most notorious application of quantum computing is its potential to invalidate certain widely used encryption methods such as RSA. Many argue that this remains the main driver of national quantum computing initiatives and the first cases where this application is likely to be used are by national actors or large conglomerates to gain access to the sensitive data and critical infrastructure of other nations or major corporations.
In May 2025, a study from Google Quantum AI suggested that breaking RSA-2048 encryption, which is widely used for secure communications over the Internet, could be achieved in less than a week using a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy (0.1% error rate) physical qubits. This is quite a drastic reduction from the previous estimate of 20 million qubits made by the same group in 2019. The steady decline in the qubit number predicted to be necessary is not due to mistakes in the calculations, but due to improvements in the quantum algorithms. This is a clear example of the two-way relationship between quantum hardware and software, where the two will eventually converge on an algorithm that can be run on existing quantum hardware.
For context, the timelines of most leading quantum computing hardware companies predict reaching the one million physical qubit milestone (or a logical qubit equivalent) no sooner than the early 2030s. While there is no cause for immediate panic, this development significantly increases the chance of a ‘Q-Day’ event within the decade and should spur the adoption of quantum-safe solutions for those most likely to be affected.
As quantum computers have grown in capability, stakeholders and investors now expect commercially relevant use cases to be demonstrated within the next few years, the report says.
